Counterpoint Estimates 57 Million PC Shipments in Q3 2026, Down 21%

Counterpoint estimates global PC shipments fell 21% to 57 million in Q3 2026, with Lenovo leading and Apple and ASUS declining less than the market.

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Oct 27, 2026 - 02:49

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Counterpoint Research preliminary Q3 2026 PC-shipment estimates and vendor comparison. Source: Counterpoint Research.

Counterpoint Estimates 57 Million PC Shipments in Q3 2026, Down 21%

Global PC shipments fell to an estimated 57 million units in the third quarter of 2026, down 21% from a year earlier and 13.8% from the previous quarter, according to Counterpoint Research's preliminary figures. The report, covered by GSMArena on October 25, describes a market squeezed by higher component costs and weak consumer replacement demand.

Lenovo remained the largest vendor. Apple and ASUS also shipped fewer computers than a year earlier, but their smaller declines allowed them to gain share in a shrinking market.

A separate estimate, not a revision of IDC's figures

Counterpoint's numbers should not be confused with the earlier IDC report already covered by Innopark IT. IDC's October 8 release estimated 62.7 million shipments and a 20.1% annual decline for the same quarter.

The 57 million and 62.7 million totals belong to different research series. Counterpoint's later publication is not evidence that an additional block of computers disappeared from IDC's count, and the two totals should not be combined into one trend line. Each firm's vendor shares must be read with its own market total.

Lenovo leads, while HP records a sharper decline

Vendor	Q3 shipments	Market share	Annual change
Lenovo	15.0 million	26.3%	-23%
HP	10.3 million	18.1%	-31%
Dell	7.6 million	13.3%	-25%
Apple	5.6 million	9.8%	-11%
ASUS	5.2 million	9.2%	-7%

Source: Counterpoint Research. Preliminary estimates; shipment figures are rounded.

Lenovo's 15 million shipments kept it in first place despite a 23% annual fall. HP remained second, but its 31% decline was steeper than the market's overall contraction. Dell ranked third with a 25% drop.

Counterpoint put the five vendors' combined share at 76.7%. This is a shipment measure, not a direct count of every computer purchased by a household or business during the quarter.

Apple and ASUS gain share without annual shipment growth

Apple's estimated shipments fell 11% to 5.6 million, while its share rose to 9.8% from 8.7% a year earlier. Counterpoint said the MacBook Neo helped cushion the decline.

ASUS recorded the smallest annual decline among the top five, at 7%. Its 5.2 million shipments were also 19.4% above the previous quarter, and its annual market share increased from 7.8% to 9.2%.

The distinction is important: gaining share did not mean either company shipped more PCs than in Q3 2025. They performed better relative to competitors while the overall market contracted.

Component costs and a strong comparison period weigh on demand

Counterpoint linked the downturn to elevated memory and other component costs pushing system prices higher. Consumer demand remained weak, while commercial fleet replacement and Windows migration provided some support without offsetting the wider fall.

The annual comparison was also demanding. Purchases ahead of the Windows 10 support deadline and tariff-related inventory adjustments had supported shipments in Q3 2025, raising the base against which the latest quarter was measured.

The outlook remains a forecast

Counterpoint expects global shipments to fall 27% year on year in Q4 2026 and forecasts broadly flat volumes in 2027 compared with 2026. Neither is a completed-quarter result.

Flat shipments next year would represent stabilization near a lower base, not a return to the previous market peak. The report's central challenge for manufacturers is maintaining affordability while component costs remain elevated.