SoftBank Faces Hard Questions on Its AI Bets as Earnings Arrive After a Brutal Selloff

SoftBank Group reports quarterly earnings on Tuesday, 10 November 2026, with investors wondering how much reassurance it will offer about its strategies amid a rout in AI stocks and after its takeover of ABB's robotics unit was blocked by China. The Japanese tech investment firm's big bets on artificial intelligence — particularly the $64.6 billion it has spent on a 13% stake in OpenAI — have raised questions about how well it will be able to weather setbacks for the sector.

The midterm sweep changed the questions

The Democratic Party's sweeping success in US midterm elections has heightened expectations of regulatory scrutiny and delays to building data centres, increasing scepticism about returns for the AI industry. "The near-term buildout and how exactly everything is going to be financed, whether it can be energized, where it will be deployed, are questions that were much easier to answer six months ago than today," said Rolf Bulk, head of semiconductors and infrastructure at research firm Futurum Group. The health of the AI industry has huge implications for SoftBank, which has made investments across AI model developers, data centre infrastructure, semiconductors and robotics.

Debt, and a share price under pressure

SoftBank has taken on debt at eye-popping yields and at the end of June, the company had net interest-bearing debt of 10.8 trillion yen ($68 billion) compared to 6.6 trillion yen a year earlier. The worries about the AI sector pulled SoftBank's shares 11% lower on Friday while the cost of insuring its debt against default hit a four-year high. Its shares fell 4.2% on Monday and are down 23% for the year to date. SoftBank could adopt a more defensive posture, said Futurum's Bulk.

What to watch on Tuesday

SoftBank's earnings results are highly volatile and difficult to predict. Forecasts from three analysts polled by LSEG for July-September net profit range from a gain of 233 billion yen ($1.5 billion) to a loss of 113 billion yen. Earnings numbers are due out at 0630 GMT and a briefing by CFO Yoshimitsu Goto will commence at 0730 GMT. Investors will be listening for how much reassurance management offers about a strategy that now depends on the AI boom holding up — and on a robotics deal that China has already blocked.

Sources

• Reuters — SoftBank to face scrutiny of AI strategy at second-quarter earnings after selloff